Threat Wheel as a Foundable Win Rate Meter

Samantuchy

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Feb 13, 2019
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Have you been wondering why so many Foundables are getting away? Here’s an analysis of win rates that might clear some things up for Wizards Unite players.

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Fighting the odds



Using the threat wheel and the cast bar we can now quickly figure out Foundable win rates. We are still researching flee rates – which along with the win rates will create capture rates.

Many thanks to the Wizards and specifically the win-rate wizards at /r/WizardsUnite Discord, led by FoxFireX. After swimming through screenshots of threat wheels, data mining code, and doing the hard math, we have some great research on the subject.

The research unveils many previously unknown aspects of Wizard Unite and simplifies some of the game’s most complex mechanisms. The study focuses on the eight uneven-colored sections shown on the threat wheel.

Threat Wheel and Cast Bar


The eight sections colored green through red each represent very different amounts of win rate. Most win rates – 100% down to 40% – disperse evenly in the first green section. The other seven sections represent the bottom 40% of win rates. For instance, the final red section represents only the worst 1% of win rates.

Click on the image for a high-definition version



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One way of using this information is to use the colors as references to win percentages. The brightest green section has at least a 40% win rate, yellow casts win 10-20% of the time, and bright red ensures only 1% will be won. Additionally, the threat wheel colors between the dark hands become the colors of the catch bar while you cast spells.

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Further research is needed to determine how the cast bar slider relates to the awarding of the min-max bonus.

Cast Quality


The research reveals how important cast quality is: very! For low threats the difference in win rate is 32.7 percentage points between the worst and best casts. For higher threats and after drinking Exstimulo potions, cast quality has diminishing impacts.

Click on the image for a high-definition version



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Wizarding Levels Impact on Win Rate


These discoveries show how important wizard levels are for returning emergency-threat Foundables: very. For Emergencies, the maximum win rate for new wizards is about 2%. Level 60 wizards enjoy at least 20% win rates and all Level 60 wizards win rates max out at 100% after drinking a Potent Exstimulo Potion and casting perfect spells.

Also explained in the research is how important wizard levels are for returning low-threat Foundables: not at all. A spell cast by a level one wizard will give the same percentage of wins as the same quality spell cast by a level 60 Witch or Wizard.

Click on the image for a high-definition version


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Individual Wizard Levels Lack of Impact


These charts also represent well how important individual wizard levels are for catch rates. Arriving at levels divisible by 5 improves the cast rate dramatically. Any other increase in Wizarding Level – i.e. from 1 to 2 or from 33 to 34, doesn’t help at all.

Exstimulo Potions


Finally, these researchers have shown us the importance and unimportance of Exstimulo Potions. As potion bonuses are a multipliers of your level bonus, the higher your wizard level, the better Exstimulo Potions work. Adding Potent Exstimulo’s 250% boost to the level 60 Emergency Foundables base win rate of 20% raises the base win rate to 85%. Tacking on a similar improvement to the 0.43% level one Wizard’s minimum rate becomes only a 1.83% win rate.


Click on the image for a high-definition version




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Further Research


This research is based off, again, the measurements and calculations of screenshots and not based on sample data. Research to verify these claims should begin soon, and will be available via the Accio Wizards Unite Discord.

To find currently ongoing research – see this article: First Three Weeks of Wizards Unite: Worldwide Resources

Find more math and analysis on the original Reddit post here: Original Post

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The post Threat Wheel as a Foundable Win Rate Meter appeared first on Accio Wizards Unite.
 
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Wanderer

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Jun 27, 2019
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Excellent detail.

Base player level really adds up and is noticeable in game. Nice to see some figures applied to it.

I assumed it would be diminishing returns with player level. Nice to see its linear growth (if xp cost is disregarded)
 
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